Ash cloud from Icelandic volcano could hit Scotland by midday Tuesday

Ash from an erupting Icelandic volcano could reach northern Scotland by Tuesday and parts of Britain, France and Spain by Thursday or Friday if the eruption continues at the same rate, airlines were warned on Sunday. 

The warning is based on latest 5-day weather forecasts, but must be treated with caution because of the forecast period and the presence of different air currents from those prevailing at the time of last year's ash crisis, weather officials said.

European authorities said on Sunday no disruption was expected to European or transatlantic airspace over the next 24 hours from the eruption of Iceland's most active volcano on Saturday.

The warning comes nearly a year after one volcano erupted in Iceland and caused havoc for air passengers.
Grimsvoetn, Iceland’s most active volcano at the heart of its biggest glacier, began erupting late on Saturday, sending a plume of smoke and ash 12miles high.

So much ash was blasted into the sky that it blocked out the sun and covered nearby villages and farms.
By yesterday, the ash had reached the capital Reykjavik, nearly 250m to the west, and all the country’s airspace was closing down.

In April last year, 34 countries shut their airspace after the Eyjafjallajökull volcano erupted due to fears that fine ash particles could cause jet engines to stop.

It was the largest such closure since the Second World War and millions of passengers were affected.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimated that the global airline industry lost £130million a day during the disruption.
Experts and aviation authorities said the impact of the Grimsvoetn eruption should not be as severe and was likely to mainly affect Iceland.

Gunnar Gudmundsson, of Iceland's Meteorological Office, said: “I don’t expect this will have the same effect as Eyjafjoell volcano because the ash is not as fine.”

However, they acknowledged that changing weather patterns could sweep the ash into areas where it would affect other countries.

Einar Kjartansson, a geophysicist at Iceland’s Met Office, warned: “If the eruption lasts for a long time we could be seeing similar effects as seen with Eyjafjallajökull last year.”

He added that “most of the traffic at least to the south of Iceland will probably not be affected” but said: “We don't know what will happen after that.”

The forecast is for winds to clear the ash from Reykjavik and dissipate the problem over the coming days.
Bjorgvin Hardarsson, a farmer in the village of Kirkjubaejarklaustur, close to the latest eruption, described the ash, saying: “It’s just black outside, and you can hardly tell it is supposed to be bright daylight.”

Eurocontrol, the European air safety organisation, said no impact was expected on European airspace outside Iceland or on transatlantic flights for at least 24 hours.

Grimsvoetn, which has erupted nine times between 1922 and 2004, is located in an enormous caldera - a collapsed volcanic crater – five miles in diameter near the centre of the Vatnajoekull icefield.

When it last erupted in November 2004, volcanic ash fell as far away as mainland Europe and caused minor disruptions in flights to and from Iceland.

A spokesman for the Civil Aviation Authority said: “It’s early days and we’re keeping an eye on the situation but at the moment the weather patterns are looking pretty favourable.

“It’s the kind of situation that can change very quickly but we’d be very unlucky to be affected again as the winds normally would take this kind of problem away from us.

“The only problem passengers are likely to have is if you’re going to Iceland.”